The Wonderful World of FHFS

Monday, November 21, 2005

No-hitters come in all kinds of ways, shapes, forms



By Tim Kurkjian
ESPN The Magazine

No-hitters make no sense. Bud Smith has thrown a no-hitter, and Roger Clemens hasn't? Tommy Greene did, Steve Carlton didn't. Charlie Lea did, Greg Maddux hasn't. Mike Warren has more no-hitters than the Padres. Juan Nieves has more than the Mets. And six Astros pitchers -- in one game -- have taken part in as many no-hitters as Tom Seaver and Jim Palmer.

It's really hard to throw a no-hitter, which makes Johnny Vander Meer's back-to-back no-hitters in 1938 so remarkable. In the 12 seasons before his double dip, there were a total of two no-hitters in the National League. From 1916 through 1943, the only year in which two no-hitters were thrown in the NL was the year of Vander Meer's double no-hitter.

But if it's so hard, how could the White Sox's Joe Cowley throw one? His came in 1986. He walked seven in a 7-1 win over the Angels.

"He was so bad,'' Doug Rader, then a White Sox coach, said half-jokingly years later, "I didn't even shake his hand after the game.''

How could Bobo Holloman throw one? He was a bad relief pitcher on his way to the minor leagues, but before being sent down, the St. Louis Browns gave him his first major-league start on May 6, 1953. He threw a no-hitter. They couldn't send him to the minor leagues after that, so he stuck around, won two more games in his career, never threw another complete game and finished with an ERA of 5.21. The 1953 season was his only one in the major leagues.

If it's so hard to throw a no-hitter, how could it happen on consecutive days? On Sept. 17, 1968, the Giants' Gaylord Perry no-hit the Cardinals. On Sept. 18, the Cardinals' Ray Washburn no-hit the Giants. In 1990, there were seven no-hitters.

A no-hitter happens when great stuff intersects with good luck. Or, good stuff with great luck. And you only have to be great for a few hours, which explains how some truly ordinary pitchers have accomplished one extraordinary feat.

Great defense also helps. In Nieves' no-hitter in 1987, the final out came on a diving catch by center fielder Robin Yount on a drive by Eddie Murray. A forgiving official scorer also helps. Three pitchers in history recorded no-hitters when the official scorer changed a hit to an error after the game: Jeff Tesreau in 1912, Ernie Koob in 1917 and Virgil Trucks in 1952.

There have been 211 nine-inning no-hitters in history, seven by the incomparable Nolan Ryan, who threw his last one at age 44. Bob Feller pitched a no-hitter on Opening Day of the 1940 season, providing the answer to this conundrum: How it is possible for every hitter on a team to finish a game with the exact batting average as when they started?

With all the great pitchers in Mets history, it's hard to believe that no Met has thrown a no-hitter. Pat Zachry came close, and it's just as well he didn't get it. The story, originally told to Marty Noble of Newsday, goes this way. In 1982, Zachry had a no-hitter going with two outs in the eighth inning. He then gave up a hit to Bob Molinaro.

After the game, Zachry told Noble that he thought the eighth inning was actually the ninth inning. So, if he had gotten the last out of the eighth without giving up a hit, he would have leaped in the air, and perhaps into the arms of his catcher -- one inning early. How embarrassing would that have been?

In his book, "The Man Who Stole First Base," Craig Wright details a strange no-hitter. In 1923, Boston's Howard Ehmke threw a no-hitter against the Philadelphia A's. With two outs in the sixth, A's pitcher Slim Harris, an .060 hitter, doubled to left-center, but he missed first base. The Red Sox appealed, and Harris was called out at first -- nullifying the hit.

In Ehmke's next start, four days later at Yankee Stadium, he gave up a hit to the leadoff man, Whitey Witt, in the first inning. It was a highly questionable call, and everyone in the ballpark just assumed it was an error. But in 1923, the scoreboard gave only the run total, and there was no public address system.

When Ehmke got the final out in the ninth inning, the 15,000 fans cheered wildly, thinking that Ehmke had become the first man in history to throw back-to-back no-hitters. As it turned out, it was only a one-hitter.

Fifteen years later, Vander Meer did it for real. And that time, everyone knew it.

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and a regular contributor to Baseball Tonight. E-mail tim.kurkjian@espnmag.com.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

Baseblogs

Obsessive fans track the national pastime on the Web
By. Josh Levin, Assistant Editor, Slate Magazine




Baseball and blogging are a perfect match. Each day of the 162-game season brings a new torrent of information—another round of at-bats, boneheaded managerial moves, minor-league games, and scoreboard dot races—that requires instant analysis. There's also a huge body of baseball knowledge on the Web, ready to be mined for cross-referential links: local papers, statistical encyclopedias, analytical clearinghouses, other baseblogs. For fans living far from their favorite team, and without the time or inclination to order MLB Extra Innings, a dedicated blogger is local color—a friend who can't help but complain about the local TV announcers and a beat writer who doesn't lard his copy with boring player quotes.

On the most popular sites in the baseblogosphere, game recaps and scapegoat-bashing transcend team affiliation. In the hands of the best basebloggers, the parochial becomes universal. Fans of the national pastime are united by our compulsive love of miscellany. You don't have to gnash your teeth over the results of Miguel Asencio's MRI to hit refresh on the obsessive Kansas City Royals blog written by hometown fans Rany Jazayerli and ESPN.com baseball columnist Rob Neyer. As true fans, we have our own Miguel Asencios, and we understand.

Like the political blogosphere, the same sites—Redbird Nation (St. Louis Cardinals), the Big Red C (Chicago Cubs), and U.S.S. Mariner (Seattle Mariners)—show up in blog roll after blog roll. But no matter which team you root for, even if it's the Milwaukee Brewers or the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, there's a beat blogger working hard to keep you up to date. If you're looking for a blog that covers your favorite team, BaseballBlogs.org is the best place to start.

Minnesota Twins fans, for instance, can follow every hangnail and torn meniscus on no fewer than five Twins-centric Weblogs. In the third inning of the Minnesota Twins' second game, local-boy-turned-super-prospect Joe Mauer tore cartilage in his right knee while chasing after a foul ball. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune's beat writer wrote with a kind of composed distress—"What Mauer and the Twins must be concerned about is the prospect of a 20-year-old catcher suffering an injury that could lead to chronic arthritis"—but the paper's in-house fan blogger, Twins Geek, took the news a little harder. "What does this mean for a catcher who relies so much on his knees??!!?? What about a 20-year-old??!!?? Does it mean we'll have to start thinking about moving him to a new position?!? WILL THINGS EVER BE THE SAME????"

Despite Twins Geek's tone, the Twins blogs aren't the screeds of brainless rooters who reflexively beat the drum for the home team. As part of a nearly 2,000-word post on last Tuesday's 15-inning game, Seth Stohs pondered whether the stickiness of the Metrodome's new turf contributed to the recent spate of Twins injuries. On his Twins page, Will Young pored through nine years of transactions to see if General Manager Terry Ryan deserves his reputation as a master executive. And Aaron Gleeman keeps fans up-to-date on the not-so-high-profile negotiations to get Victory Sports, the Twins' version of the YES Network, onto local cable systems.

The baseblogosphere isn't just a way for fans to follow specific teams, though. There are plenty of sites for baseball generalists, especially those with a post-Moneyball hankering for the Bill James-ian side of the game. (Check out Bronx Banter for an interview with the legend himself.) In the week since Opening Day, the site Sabernomics has featured posts on whether putting in a defensive replacement is a good strategic gambit and a new study that shows that labor strikes haven't affected attendance. Mike's Baseball Rants, one of the 10 excellent blogs hosted by the domain all-baseball.com, includes a review of what the leading minds in baseball analysis think about competitive balance and a list of the best Japanese players who've yet to play in the major leagues.

Some sites come in especially handy when you're trying to win an argument with a baseball nerd. On his business of baseball page, Doug Pappas, a lawyer who has chaired SABR's business of baseball committee for 10 years, offers salary data going back to 1977 and ticket prices to 1950. At On Deck Baseball Prospects, the obsessive Scott Rex ranks the top 500 prospects in minor league baseball. The Transaction Guy stays on top of every roster move, and the Baseball News Blog offers links to the top stories of the day.

Then there are the oddball outliers. The Score Bard pens limericks about wayward outfielders: "Such talent, the young Milton Bradley!/ It seems he can sometimes play Vladly./ But he's brittle and lame/ And his last childish game/ Got him fired for acting so badly." The Baseball Widow pines for a wayward husband: "I love my husband. My husband loves baseball. Welcome to our coping mechanism." And perhaps the oddest of them all, Management by Baseball, dispenses a daily business lesson learned from observation of the national pastime: "If you've managed in enough groups, sooner or later you're bound to run into what I call a Mike Moore situation."

If nothing else, baseblogs increase your rate of baseball digestion. Even though the season has just begun, I've already filled up on a couple lifetimes' worth of trivia. Over the past couple of days, I've learned that Jeff Weaver's little brother Jered has a 1.13 ERA for Long Beach State, that Brewers reliever Jeff Bennett doesn't curve the bill of his cap "so he can check runners on base," and that the 5-1 Detroit Tigers were 3-25 at one point last year. Once Detroit's inevitable slide begins, the team's fans can take comfort in the fact that they can still turn to Tiger Blog for game-by-game updates—on the progress of the World Series champion 1984 Tigers.

Josh Levin is a Slate assistant editor.

Wednesday, October 26, 2005

Jones born to play the game






The people in DeLand, Fla., knew Chipper Jones was going to be a big leaguer when he was about 12 years old. He had enormous ability, but he also had that look. So there was upheaval in a town that expected state championships when Chipper's father took him out of public school and sent him 90 miles up the road to a private school because his father thought teachers were giving his son preferential treatment. "I still have some people in town,'' Larry Jones said many years later, "who won't speak to me.''

The first time Braves scouting director Paul Snyder saw Jones play in high school, he was dazzled. Others in the organization wanted to draft Todd Van Poppel, but Snyder won, taking Jones with the No. 1 pick in 1990. The contract negotiations took about 30 minutes. The Braves made an offer. Chipper, who didn't have an agent, agreed to it. Larry Jones took his son upstairs in their house and told him "you can get a lot more than this.'' Chipper said, "I don't care. I want to play right away.'' Chipper said he knew he didn't need to get rich with the first contract -- the really big money was to come later.

The first time Braves manager Bobby Cox saw Jones, he knew he was going to be a star. "That face,'' Cox said. "He has that face.'' It is the face of a baseball lifer, a guy who was born to play the game. A baseball lifer doesn't necessarily mean playing until you're 45, then managing or coaching the rest of your life. It also means playing the game properly, doing what you're told, doing what's best for the team, adjusting constantly and, of course, winning.

Jones was born to play shortstop, but an injury to his left knee cost him the 1994 season, and his career as a shortstop. The next year when he came to spring training, Cox put him at third base and in the third spot in the order. Jones' first year was terrific. He finished second to Hideo Nomo for the National League Rookie of the Year. He had a marvelous postseason, which ended in the first, and only, World Series title for the Braves during their amazing run. After the season, Jones received an autographed baseball from his baseball hero, Cal Ripken, a baseball lifer whose early career was similar to Jones'. Ripken congratulated Jones on his success his first year, then wrote, "now comes the hard part.''

Jones has made it look easy on his way to the Hall of Fame. Cooperstown is short on third basemen (there are 10, fewest of any position) and switch-hitters; Jones excels at both. Jones' .304 lifetime average is the second highest in history among switch-hitters, trailing only Frankie Frisch (.316). Jones is the only switch-hitter with a .300 average and 300 homers. The only Hall of Fame third baseman with a .300 average and 300 homers is George Brett. He is one of 21 players of all time (minimum of 5,000 plate appearances) with a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging percentage -- 13 of those are in the Hall (Joe Jackson is No. 14) and seven are active.

But with Jones, it's so much more than the numbers. It's not being overwhelmed when the manager puts you in the No. 3 hole as a rookie on a team that had won three division titles in a row. It's having a Hall of Fame career going as a third baseman, then moving to left field for a year, without complaint, for the good of the team -- then moving back to third base for the good of the team. It's about being one of guys, a team spokesman through good times and bad.

And through it all, the expression on Chipper Jones' face has never changed. It is a look of complete calm, of utter confidence, the look of a player who always knows where he's going and how he's going to get there. Jones is already there, and at age 33, he is far from done accomplishing things. Leading the Dodgers' through the thick of a divisional race Jones is positioning himself for a MVP race and no doubt, there are more 100-RBI/100-run seasons to be had; there is a run at 500 home runs and more division titles to be won. And when Jones is inducted into the Hall of Fame in, say, 2016, the people in DeLand, Fla., will say that they saw it coming 30 years earlier.

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.

Monday, October 10, 2005

San Francisco Midseason Report


By. Matthew Minton, FHFS Contributing Writer

In a move that shouldn't surprise anyone, the theme to the first half of the San Francisco Giants season has been turnover. After all, this is the same club that dealt it's three best players (Jason Schmidt, Zach Day and Alex Rodriguez, among others) after a season that saw them fall a game short of reaching the World Series.

After falling as many as ten games under .500 early in the season, a flury of midseason trades has brought some optimism back to the former stomping grounds of Barry Bonds. Three trades have helped to bring that about.

The first came with the Florida Marlins, seeing the shipping of incumbent #5 starting pitcher Josh Towers and two prospects, including Brad Hennessey, for outfielder Jay Gibbons and starting pitcher John Lackey. While Lackey isn't expected to contribute fully until next season, Gibbons has made a big difference in the depth of the team.

"While Jeromy [Burnitz] was doing a nice job patrolling left field, it was clear he was a shadow of his former self," Giants VP and General Manager Matt Minton said. "Jay is a younger version with good power potential, and a guy we can rely on to put the bat on the ball fairly often, something this team has missed in the past.

The Giants have been open to adding another outfielder in an attempt to add more power to the lineup, but are more than happy to have Gibbons on board.

"Jay knows his role, certainly," Minton added. "He's not going to hit 40 HR and drive in 135 runs or anything, but on a team that really needed help anywhere, he's a valuable player."

The second trade was the true blockbuster that appears to have changed the fortunes of the Giants season around. Robert Person, having grossly underperformed and having been grossly overpaid, and also having been acquired earlier this season in a big deal that saw Greg Miller and Charles Johnson leave town, was shipped along with Fernando Lunar, Justin Morneau, Erik Bedard, Jason Arnold and John-Ford Griffin to the St. Louis Cardinals for starters Eric Milton and Chan Ho Park, prospect Conor Jackson and catcher Eddie Taubensee.

Milton (8-4, 4.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Park (5-7, 3.32 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) immediately bring a stability that was lacking earlier in the season.

"We were really excited to add these two guys," Minton claimed. "We feel both are middle of the rotation starters making good money for what they're capable of doing. With Kevin (Millwood), Randy (Wolf) and Mark (Buerhle) with them, and all but Kevin signed long-term, we feel we're in fantastic shape now, with pitching able to carry us."

"And, obviously, we hope to sit down with Kevin and hammer something out soon."

The last trade saw a daring move with the division rival Arizona Diamondbacks that brought youngsters Michael Restovich, a catcher, and Jason Romano, a utility man, to San Francisco for infielder Antonio Perez and three prospects, including outfielder Brad Nelson and starter Kirk Saarloos.

The key to that deal is the upgrade at catcher, according to Minton.

"Restovich is a guy who we think is our future at catcher, and we're really excited to have him for the long haul," he said. "With Taubensee, Restovich and Lawrence back there, we believe we have enough depth there to be competitive. In fact, if we do continue to improve, it will be because of our depth everywhere."

As evidence, Minton pointed to the fact that his bench, against righties, features proven bats such as Aaron Rowand, Dee Brown, Eddie Taubensee and D'Angelo Jimenez, as well as Romano and Joe Lawrence. Additionally, he claimed Park as one of the best fifth starters in baseball, and claimed the bullpen, featuring a back end of Kyle Farnsworth, Brad Lidge, Julio Mateo and BJ Ryan, as one of the best in the league.

"We've been written off because of a poor start and a team that lacks stars, but I'm not giving up on us just yet, and if I had a message for other GM's, I'd suggest doing the same," he closed.

Sunday, July 10, 2005

Best In Show

Mays over Mantle in center

Here is my all-time lineup: the greatest players at each position, presented in the form of a batting order (though with these guys, it doesn't matter much where they reside in the lineup; they're going to score plenty of runs no matter what).

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1. Joe Morgan, 2B
I'm not sure if people realize just how great Joe Morgan was. He won the National League's MVP Award in both 1975 and '76, deservedly so. But he could also have won the award in 1972, 1973, and 1974. And as you might guess, the list of players who were the best (or even arguably the best) in their league for five consecutive years is awfully short.


2. Honus Wagner, SS
Some will say that Wagner, who played a century ago and was built like a blockhouse with bowlegs, doesn't belong on any team with "modern" players. Perhaps. But Cal Ripken wasn't anybody's idea of a prototypical shortstop, and he did all right. How great was Wagner? Even in his late 30s, he ranked as one of the very best players in the game. And before you tell me this "proves" that baseball during the Dead Ball Era couldn't have been all that good, remember how much credit Barry Bonds has gotten for doing exactly what Wagner did -- 90 years earlier.

3. Ted Williams, LF
Williams. Musial. Aaron. Choosing between them is neither easy nor fun. And no, Williams wasn't a particularly good baserunner or fielder (mostly because after a few years he stopped caring much about either skill). But the most important statistic in baseball is on-base percentage, and if not for World War II, the Korean War, and a couple of injuries, Williams would probably have led the American League in that category for 19 straight seasons (1940-1958). In 1960, the season in which he turned 42, Williams finished with a .454 OBP and a .645 slugging percentage, both of which would have been No. 1 in the league if he'd played enough to qualify (he fell roughly 20 games short).

4. Babe Ruth, RF
Ruth's claim on the title, Greatest Player Ever, is predicated, in part, on his three-season run as one of the game's top pitchers. That doesn't get him any extra points here, of course (if we need a reliever, we'll sign Mariano Rivera, or perhaps Lefty Grove). Ruth does get extra points, though, for fundamentally changing his chosen profession. Oh, he wasn't the sole reason for baseball's reinvention in the 1920s. But in 1920, Ruth outhomered every other American League team (and all but one National League team), and it's hard to believe that nobody was paying attention. With the exception of 1925, when he was sick, Ruth was the best hitter in the majors every season from 1918 through 1931.

5. Willie Mays, CF
Mays or Mantle. Mantle or Mays. One's preference is largely a matter of taste, as compelling statistical and anecdotal arguments can be made for both. I wind up with Mays because he essentially has no flaws, while Mantle's reliability/availability is always a question mark, even if it's buried far back in your mind. Also, with Williams and Ruth playing the corner outfield positions, it's probably a good idea to have Say Hey in the middle.

6. Lou Gehrig, 1B
Gehrig's life has been romanticized, of course, and he certainly wasn't the perfect player; he didn't run all that well, and wasn't a great fielder. That said, there are two or three excellent seasons separating Gehrig from his nearest competition -- Jimmie Foxx, Jeff Bagwell, Eddie Murray -- and that's with Gehrig's losing three or four (or more) seasons to the disease that would take both his life and his name.

7. Mike Schmidt, 3B
Schmidt, still underrated in some quarters, ranks just behind Joe Morgan among the greatest players of the 1970s. Here are the only three things you need to know about Mike Schmidt: He led the National League in home runs seven times; he led his league in walks four times; and he won (and for the most part earned) 10 Gold Gloves. The only thing Schmidt couldn't (or perhaps wouldn't) do was hit for average -- he topped .300 only once in 18 season -- but if his batting average didn't bother his on-base or slugging percentages, why should it bother us?

8. Josh Gibson, C
Roy Campanella was one of the five or six greatest catchers in major league history. And yet Branch Rickey, as fine a judge of baseball talent as ever lived, once said, "You know what I feel about Campanella" -- who starred for Rickey's Dodgers -- "but whatever Roy can do, Josh could do better." We don't have reliable stats for Gibson, whose career ended before Jackie Robinson broke the color line. We do have the eyewitness accounts, though. In 1939, Walter Johnson saw Gibson play, and afterward remarked, "There is a catcher that any big league club would like to buy for $200,000. I've heard of him before. His name is Gibson. He can do everything. He hits that ball a mile. And he catches so easy he might as well be in a rocking chair. Throws like a rifle. Bill Dickey isn't as good a catcher. Too bad this Gibson is a colored fellow."

9. Roger Clemens, Pitcher

Perhaps we've not been kind enough to the "modern" player -- with his personal trainer, his year-round conditioning program, and his better living through chemistry. So let Roger Clemens carry the banner of the 21st century superstars. A few years ago, we could argue about who was greater, Clemens or Maddux, but this season Clemens has settled that debate. Now in his 22nd season, Clemens looks like he just might pitch forever. And unlike the great moundsmen of yesteryear, Clemens has rarely been able to coast; in his era, even the shortstops and second basemen are capable of hitting the ball over the fence, which makes for a different style of pitching than that employed by Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson. There are other pitchers you might want for a single game -- Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson come to mind -- but for the ultimate combination of dominance and durability, you just can't go wrong with the Rocket.

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I don't suppose it's the most productive lineup ever, but the Big Red Machine in 1975 and '76 might have been the most balanced lineup -- and they weren't exactly light on production, either. With four Hall of Fame-caliber players (including Pete Rose) and three others (Dave Concepcion, Ken Griffey, George Foster) who enjoyed long and productive careers, this lineup essentially had no weakness except center fielder Cesar Geronimo … and Geronimo was a four-time Gold Glove winner. Here's the most common lineup used in those two seasons:

1. Pete Rose (3B)
2. Ken Griffey (RF)
3. Joe Morgan (2B)
4. Johnny Bench (C)
5. Tony Perez (1B)
6. George Foster (LF)
7. Dave Concepcion (SS)
8. Cesar Geronimo (CF)

Including postseason play, this exact lineup was used 87 times from its inception through the 1976 World Series. In those 87 games, the Reds went 69-18.

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider two or three times per week during the season. To offer criticism, praise or anything in-between, send an e-mail to rob.neyer@dig.com.

Thursday, March 31, 2005

D.C. Reformation



National Pasttime Belongs in Nation's Capital
by Tim Kurkjian

Frank Howard, one of the greatest Washington Senators of all time, was the subject of a story recently in The Washington Post. He was discussing the good old days, including 1969 when Ted Williams managed the team. The Senators won 86 games to break a streak of 15 consecutive losing seasons and, Howard added emphatically, drew 900,000 fans.

Nine hundred thousand fans ... and he was thrilled. In 1969-70, the Senators outdrew eight franchises, but Washington's attendance those two years combined was roughly the same as what the 2005 defending world champion Devil Rays will draw by June. That, as much as anything else, shows how dramatically baseball has changed since 1971, the final year of the Washington Senators. The 1950s and 1960s was not the golden age of baseball; now is the golden age of baseball, at least when it comes to attendance, fan interest, marketing, etc. This time, the Washington Nationals finally have a real chance to flourish.

"This has a chance to be special and unique," Nationals president Tony Tavares said. Ryan Carver, the Nats' general manager, said, "This place has a chance to be a gold mine."

Only nine cities have played host to more major league games than Washington, D.C., even going without baseball for 33 years. Now, it is back. The game returns to a widely changed region, one that is significantly larger than the one it left. Washington is the sixth largest metropolitan area in America; it was the largest without a major league baseball team. It has the most highly educated work force in America; its average household income is the second largest in the nation. Virginia, from which the Washington Redskins and Wizards draw their largest percentage of fans, is the second fastest growing state in the country, and nearby Loudoun County, Va., is the fastest growing county in the United States. A subway system, one of the best in the country, delivers fans to the Nationals' home, RFK Stadium. If the Senators had had a subway in 1971, they might not have left.

Everything is different now in Washington, and in baseball. This is the era of marketing in MLB, one reason that the major leagues and minor leagues set attendance records last year. There was no marketing in 1971, at least in Washington. You couldn't buy a decent Senators cap anywhere; today, even without a full marketing staff given the lateness of their move from Montreal, the Nationals are near the top in the major leagues in merchandise sales. In 1971, the closest thing to marketing for the Senators was a sign on RFK that said "Game Tonight."

The Senators didn't even offer season tickets to their fans until 1957; then-owner Calvin Griffith didn't believe in them. The Nationals have over 20,000 season tickets, which works out to nearly 1.8 million fans. In the 71-year history of baseball in Washington, a history that is richer than most people think, a history that includes the greatest pitcher of all time, Walter Johnson, no Senators or Nationals team ever drew 1.8 million fans in one season.

Washington, despite having a large African-American population, was one of the last franchises to sign an African-American player; now, the Nationals have a diverse roster with Frank Robinson as their manager. Washington is one of the most diverse and cultural cities in America, and the Nationals have players from eight countries, including Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela.

All that's the same in Washington is RFK Stadium, which will serve as the Nationals' home for three years. When it opened for baseball in 1962, it was a state-of-the-art park. With its wavy roof, it looked like a space ship. It is antiquated now, of course, but it holds 50,000 people, its measurements are fair to pitchers and hitters and, with recent renovations and improvements, its clubhouses and dugouts will be on par with many in baseball. The longest any ballpark has gone between playing host to a major league game is 12 years. The longest span between regularly scheduled games is five years. RFK's gap will be 34 years.

In April 2008, RFK is scheduled to be replaced by a 41,500-seat ballpark in Southeast Washington, on the Anacostia River. The new park is expected to overlook downtown Washington, including the Capitol and Washington Monument. The plan is to revitalize that Southeast area with shops and restaurants – and with the ballpark as the center of activity.

So much as changed in Washington, and in baseball, since the Senators last played. In 1971, Richard Nixon was the president; there were 24 major league teams, not the 30 we have today; there was no DH; Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente were active; and only three current Nationals players were alive. Back then, it was said, erroneously in many cases, Washington was first in war, first in peace and last in the American League. There is no chance Washington might finish last in the National League East this year, though a World Championship may be out of grasp. But it won't be long before the city holds such a title. If the team flounders, ownership will be expected to bring in lots of money and more change.

And all of that change in Washington, and in baseball, is for the better.

Tim Kurkjian is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and a regular contributor to Baseball Tonight.

Thursday, March 10, 2005

Can the Royals Afford Not to Sign Weaver?


Kansas City Star, MO - Jered Weaver has not thrown a competitive pitch since June. No balls, no strikes, no scouts, no new reports.

He’s the same guy the Royals chose with the number one overall pick in the 2004 FHFS Amateur Draft. He has the same agent he did then, and that agent, Scott Boras, has the same expectations he did then.

Not only have the Royals not signed Weaver, they have truncated negotiations and are prepared to let Weaver re-enter the draft and go to another team in the ‘05 dispersal. Instead they would take a “sandwich” pick, between the first and second rounds.

A baloney sandwich, according to Boras.

“What I’m trying to figure out is why they would pick this player,” Boras said. “They’ve been irregular in their maneuverings.”

The Royals respond that they’ve offered Weaver a $6.0 million bonus, which would make him the highest-paid player in the '03 and '04 drafts. Weaver would get a few dimes more than Jeff Niemann and Philip Humber, the Rice pitchers who signed with Philadelphia and Chicago respectively, as the second and third picks.

But no one really pretends Weaver wasn’t the best player in the draft and, despite concerns with signability, attitude and other cheaper alternatives, he managed to avoid drifting beyond the top selection.

The truth is, whenever you negotiate with Mr. Boras, he establishes a theorem and demands that the talks be conducted on the basis of that theorem. This time, the theorem was that Weaver is as lock-sure a prospect as Mark Prior was.

Prior got nearly a $6.5 million bonus from the Diamondbacks- he also was the No. 1 pick in his draft - and Boras based everything on that, eventually dropping his request to $6 million because Weaver is eager to play pro ball, having gotten a taste of The Show the past two summers in extended visits to his brother in Philadelphia.

But if you know Borasis the agent, and if you’ve dealt with him before (see: Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, J.D. Drew, etc.), you should understand the game. And perhaps you shouldn’t draft Jered Weaver unless, after all the gymnastics, you know you’re going to sign him.

“I’ve represented 55 first-round picks,” Boras said. “I don’t want the Royals to lose their first-round pick. I like the Royals. And I’m still open to any sort of negotiation. There’s all kinds of things we can do with this contract.

“But I also think there are two categories of first-round picks. Guys like Prior and Mark Teixiera and J.D. Drew are in a different category, because they have the ability to go to the major leagues quickly. Jered was the equivalent of the Heisman Trophy winner in college baseball last year.”

Heisman winners. ... Eric Crouch, Gino Torretta, Danny Wuerffel, Chris Weinke, Rashaan Salaam?! ... OK, bad example.

But Weaver was 15-1 with 213 strikeouts in 144 innings and a 1.62 ERA at Long Beach State. And the list of Baseball America Players of the Year is pretty strong - Prior, Teixiera, Drew, Todd Helton, Jason Varitek, Phil Nevin, John Olerud and Kris Benson, among others. And a quick way to go broke is to bet against Boras’ scouting instincts. In short, the Weaver show is indeed cool and eminently watchable.

The true divergence between Boras and the Royals is over the bonus. If Weaver signs a major-league contract and gets promoted to the Royals, he loses part of that bonus, which is spread over the life of the term. The Royals counter that Weaver’s arbitration “clock” would also start earlier, and he would be in line for bigger bucks at a younger age. Boras says that’s a separate issue and Weaver should get the full bonus anyway. The Royals say Weaver doesn’t have the right to double-dip.

Brett Tomko, the team ace, managed a 3-30 record, while earning nearly $7 million, while three other starters lost 22 or more games. Last time I checked, those were not very good numbers. Unless Garret Nakagawa is confident the Royals can score nine or ten runs every time they pitch, I think the Royals are seriously overestimating the “depth” of their pitching staff, which allows them the arrogance to demand 48-hour signing ultimatums to a young pitcher who in a year or two could easily be their best starter.

Even without Weaver, however, they Royals are touting three of the best young arms in all of the minors: Jeremy Bonderman, John Danks, and Chad Billingsley. Moreover, the team has brought in veterans John Smoltz, Brian Bohanon, and Brad Radke to take pressure of the kids. The more pressing issue is the 4 through 5 starters, unless you believe Jose Mercedes, Kris Wilson, or Justin Thompson will be effective in any of their starts.

One suspects the conversation has not ended. There is plenty of time between now and May 28, plenty of room between $5 million and $6 million, no reason for Jered Weaver to wear a sandwich board, at least not yet.

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Status of Drew Remains Uncertain: With negotiations having collapsed last week between the Royals and Weaver, where does that leave the Phillies with shortstop Stephen Drew, the only other remaining unsigned first-rounder from the 2004 draft?

Team officials were non-committal on all fronts Friday.

However, reports out of Clearwater is that the Phillies have made signing Drew the club's top priority. Boras also represents J.D. Drew, Stephen's older brother, who also spurned Philadelphia after being the second overall pick in 1997 and re-entered the draft in 1998, when he was picked by St. Louis.